Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel

Authors

  • José Alberto Fuinhas NECE-UBI and CeBER, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra
  • Matheus Belucio CEFAGE-EU, Department of Economics, University of Évora and Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4802-7873
  • Daniela Castilho Management and Economics Department, University of Beira Interior
  • Joana Mateus Management and Economics Department, University of Beira Interior
  • Rafaela Caetano Management and Economics Department, University of Beira Interior

Abstract

This research focuses on tourism as a way to stimulate economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean countries. The impact of tourism on economic growth was expected to have both short- and long-run effects. Panel autoregressive distributed lag, an econometric technique that allows for this temporal decomposition, was used. The results for the twenty-two countries revealed that, in the short-run, tourist capital investment per capita, tourist arrivals (number of persons), per capita electricity consumption, and the real exchange rate were statistically significant and had a positive impact on economic growth. In contrast, in the long-run, only tourist arrivals and per capita electricity consumption proved to be positive drivers of per capita economic growth. Policymakers should continue to develop and implement measures to attract as many tourists as possible while promoting investment in the tourism industry. However, they also need to pay attention to other economic sectors so that their countries do not become extremely dependent on tourism activity.

Keywords: capital investment, tourism arrivals, economic growth, Latin America and Caribbean, ardl

References

Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., Ranciere, R., & Rogoff, K. (2009). Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The

role of financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(4), 494–513.

Algieri, B. (2006). International tourism specialisation of small countries. International Journal of Tourism Research, 8(1), 1–12.

Al-mulali,U., Fereidouni,H.G., Lee, J. Y.M.,&Mohammed, A. H. (2014). Estimating the tourism-led growth hypothesis: A case study of the Middle East countries. Anatolia, 25(2), 290–298.

Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A. (2012). Research note: A causality analysis of tourismas a long-run economic growth factor in Jamaica. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 1125–1133.

Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M., & Abidin, Z. (2011). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic

growth in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 664–671.

Aslan, A. (2014). Tourismdevelopment and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: Evidence from panel

Granger causality tests. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(4), 363–372.

Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: The Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34(7), 877–884.

Belucio,M., Antunes, J., Fernandes,F., Fuinhas, J. A.&Martin, M. B. L. (2018,November). Revisiting the tourismon

Latin America: A panel analysis. Paper presented at SemeAd 2018 – xxi Seminário emAdministraçao da Universidade de Sao Paulo.

Bianchi, C., Mingo, S., & Fernandez, V. (2018). Strategic management in LatinAmerica: Challenges in a changing

world. Journal of Business Research, 105, 306–309.

Blake, A., Sinclair,M. T., & Soria, J. A. C. (2006). Tourism productivity: Evidence from the United Kingdom. Annals

of Tourism Research, 33(4), 1099–1120.

Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina,M. (2016). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394–430.

Brida, J. G., Lanzilotta, B., & Pizzolon, F. (2016). Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth

in mercosur countries: A nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models. Economics Bulletin,

(2), 879–894.

Brida, J. G., Lanzilotta, B., & Risso,W. A. (2008). Turismo y crecimiento económico: El caso de Uruguay. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 6(3), 481–492.

Cannonier, C., & Burke,M. G. (2019). The economic growth impact of tourism in small island developing states – Evidence fromthe Caribbean. TourismEconomics, 25(1), 85–108.

Cárdenas-García, P. J., Sánchez-Rivero, M.,&Pulido-Fernández, J. I. (2015).Does tourismgrowth influence economic development? Journal of Travel Research, 54(2), 206–221.

Chen, C., & Chiou-wei, S. Z. (2009). Tourism expansion, tourism uncertainty and economic growth: New evidence

from Taiwan and Korea. Tourism Management, 30(6), 812–818.

Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2010). Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61–74.

Dogru, T., & Bulut, U. (2018). Is tourism an engine for economic recovery? Tourism Management, 67, 425–434.

Dogru, T., Isik, C., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2019). The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism. TourismManagement, 74, 12–23.

Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data.

Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560.

Du, D.,Lew,A.A.,&Ng, P. T. (2016).Tourismandeconomic growth. Journal of Travel Research, 55(4), 454–464.

Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth: The case of mauritius. Tourism Economics, 10(4), 389–401.

Eugenio-Martin, J. L., Martín Morales, N., & Scarpa, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth in Latin American

countries. ssrn Electronic Journal, 26, 1–28.

Fuinhas, J. A.,&Marques, A. C. (2012). Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey. Energy Economics, 34(2), 511–517.

Garza, N., & Ovalle, M. C. (2019). Tourism and housing prices in Santa Marta, Colombia: Spatial determinants

and interactions. Habitat International, 87, 36–43.

Gunduz, L.,&Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499–504.

Habib, M. M., Mileva, E., & Stracca, L. (2017). The real exchange rate and economic growth:Revisiting the case using external instruments. Journal of InternationalMoney and Finance, 73(1), 386–398.

Hatemi-J, A., & Irandoust, M. (2005). Energy consumption and economic growth in Sweden: A leveraged bootstrap approach (1965–2000). International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2(4), 87–98.

Holzner, M. (2011). Tourism and economic development? The beach disease? Tourism Management, 32(4), 922–933.

Husein, J.,&Kara, S. M. (2011).Research note: Re-examining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey. Tourism Economics, 17(4), 917–924.

International Monetary Fund. (2018, 16 July). World economic outlook update. https://www.imf.org/en/

Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/07/02/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2018

Irandoust, M. (2019).On the relation between exchange rates and tourismdemand: A nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, 1–10.

Jouini, T. (2015). Efficient multistep forecast procedures for multivariate time series. Journal of Forecasting, 34(7),

–618.

Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17–20.

Lanza, A., & Pigliaru, F. (2000). Tourism and economic growth:Does country’s sizematter? Rivista internazionale

di scienze economiche e commerciali, 47, 77–85.

Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism management, 29(1), 180–192.

Malaquias, R., Borges Junior, D., Malaquias, F., & Albertin, A. (2019). Climate protection or corporate promotion?

Energy companies, development, and sustainability reports in LatinAmerica. Energy Research&Social Science,

, 150–156.

Malta,G.A. P., Braga, S. S.,&Barbosa, M. F. P. (2019).Conceptions of economic development and the understanding of the role of tourism in poverty reduction. Brazilian Journal of Tourism Research, 13(2), 16–31.

Marques,L.M., Fuinhas, J. A.,&Marques,A. C. (2017).Augmented energy-growth nexus: economic, political and

social globalization impacts. Energy Procedia, 136, 97–101.

Massidda, C., & Mattana, P. (2013). A svecm analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals,

gdp and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1), 93–105.

Maximiliano, K. (2014). Problems of tourism safety in Latin America: Foreword two. In P. E. Tarlow (Ed.), Tourism

security: Strategies for effectively managing travel risk and safety (pp. xxi–xxiv). Butterworth-Heinemann.

Menegaki, A. N.,Marques, A. C., & Fuinhas, J. A. (2017). Redefining the energy-growth nexus with an index for sustainable economic welfare in Europe. Energy, 141, 1254–1268.

Nissan, E., Galindo, M. A., & Méndez, M. T. (2011). Relationship between tourismand economic growth. Service

Industries Journal, 31(10), 1567–1572.

Özokcu, S., &Özdemir,Ö. (2017). Economic growth, energy, and environmental Kuznets curve. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72, 639–647.

Payne, J.E.,&Mervar, A. (2010).Researchnote: The tourismgrowth nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4),

–1094.

Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.

Risso, W. A., & Brida, J. G. (2008). The contribution of tourism to economic growth: An empirical analysis for

the case of Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178–185.

Rivera,M. A. (2017).The synergiesbetweenhumandevelopment, economic growth, and tourism within a developing country: An empirical model for ecuador. Journal of DestinationMarketing and Management, 6(3), 221–232.

Santiago, R., Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2020). The impact of globalization and economic freedom on economic growth: The case of the Latin America and Caribbean countries. Economic Change and Restructuring,

(1), 61–85.

Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten

tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantileon-quantile approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223–

Suárez, J. A., Beatón, P. A., Escalona, R. F., &Montero,O. P. (2012). Energy, environment and development in Cuba. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2724–2731.

Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the mena countries. Energy Policy, 68, 458–464.

Tang, C. H., & Shawn, S. (2009). The tourism – Economy causality in the United States? A sub-industry level examination. Tourism Management, 30(4), 553–558.

Toman,M. T., & Jemelkova, B. (2003). Energy and economic development: An assessment of the state of knowledge. The Energy Journal, 24(4), 93–112.

Tugcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the

Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207–212.

World Tourism Organization. (2015). Annual Report 2015. https://www2.unwto.org/sites/all/files/pdf/annual

_report_2015_lr.pdf

World Travel Market. (2018, 26 June). México, Brasil e Argentina Sao os Países Mais Visitados na América Latina.https://news.wtm.com/pt/mexico-brasil-e-argentina-sao-os-paises-mais-visitados-na-america-latina/

World Travel & Tourism Council. (2018). Caribbean recovery. https://www.wttc.org/priorities/crisis-preparedness

/caribbean-recovery/

Zortuk,M. (2009). Economic impact of tourismon Turkey’s economy: Evidence from co-integration tests. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 1(25), 231–239.

Downloads

Published

2020-07-10

How to Cite

Fuinhas, J. A., Belucio, M., Castilho, D., Mateus, J., & Caetano, R. (2020). Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel. Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, 13(1). Retrieved from https://academica.turistica.si/index.php/AT-TIJ/article/view/173

Issue

Section

Articles